Wildon 4–0 Frauental: Result & Stats

Wildon

FT

4 – 0

Frauental

4/14/2023

Landesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 21Sportplatz Wildon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Wildon45%

×Draw24%

Frauental32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WildonExpected goals in this matchFrauental

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.40

Wildon

1.71

Frauental

1.40

Wildon creates 22% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 60 away

1.76

creates per match

1.40

1.39

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Wildon

1.76

Frauental

1.40

allows per match

Wildon

1.39

Frauental

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wildon+0.00on par

Frauental+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wildon ↓

Frauental →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Wildon or draw

68%

Wildon or Frauental

76%

Draw or Frauental

55%

Winning margin

Wildon wins by 2+

24%

Frauental wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wildon 1+ goals

82%

Wildon 2+ goals

51%

Wildon 3+ goals

24%

Frauental 1+ goals

75%

Frauental 2+ goals

41%

Frauental 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wildon (draw refunded)

59%

Frauental (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wildon at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.39 · 72 matches

Frauental away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.65 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wildon attack 1.76 + Frauental defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.71

Frauental attack 1.40 + Wildon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wildon scores more

45%

level

24%

Frauental scores more

32%

Wildon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wildon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff