Wigan 1–0 West Brom: Result & Stats | Championship

Wigan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

West Brom

10/20/2018

Championship · Round 13DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wigan37%

×Draw28%

West Brom35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.15

Wigan

1.20

West Brom

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 163 away

1.14

creates per match

1.18

1.13

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Wigan

1.14

West Brom

1.18

allows per match

Wigan

1.13

West Brom

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

65%

Wigan or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

63%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

16%

West Brom wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

70%

Wigan 2+ goals

34%

Wigan 3+ goals

12%

West Brom 1+ goals

68%

West Brom 2+ goals

32%

West Brom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

52%

West Brom (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.26 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.14 + West Brom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.20

West Brom attack 1.18 + Wigan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wigan scores more

37%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

35%

Wigan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff