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Wigan vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Wigan
Wigan
Preview
14:00
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
8/22/2026League OneLeague One · Round 2The Brick Community Stadium
Big match
44%
Wigan
model favours
44%25%30%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Wigan44%
×Draw25%
Leyton Orient30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.23

Wigan creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.30
Leyton Orient
1.07

allows per match

Wigan
1.38
Leyton Orient
1.78

finishing

Wigan-0.42scores less
Leyton Orient-0.18scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
70%
Wigan or Leyton Orient
75%
Draw or Leyton Orient
56%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
22%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
79%
Wigan 2+ goals
45%
Wigan 3+ goals
20%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
71%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
35%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
59%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.30 + Leyton Orient defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Leyton Orient attack 1.07 + Wigan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wigan scores more
44%
level
25%
Leyton Orient scores more
30%

Wigan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged just 1.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Wigan
Balanced
Leyton Orient
Balanced
48%Possession53%
74%Pass accuracy71%
10.3Shots11.3
1.18xGBiggest gap1.07
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WiganLeyton Orient

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

1
Wigan
3
Draws
2
Leyton Orient
Avg goals: 1.2BTTS: 17%
0–00–20–00–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wigan
LLLDW
Orient
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wigan vs Leyton Orient — Match Preview

Wigan face Leyton Orient on August 22, 2026 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wigan host Leyton Orient at The Brick Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.