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Wigan vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
J. Windass 43'
K. Ahearne-Grant 70'
12/14/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan44%
×Draw26%
Huddersfield29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.42
Huddersfield
1.11

Wigan creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 120 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Huddersfield
1.07

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Huddersfield
1.67

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Huddersfield+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
71%
Wigan or Huddersfield
74%
Draw or Huddersfield
56%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
21%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
76%
Wigan 2+ goals
41%
Wigan 3+ goals
17%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
67%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
30%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
60%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Huddersfield defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Huddersfield attack 1.07 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wigan scores more
44%
level
26%
Huddersfield scores more
29%

Wigan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. LoweWiganWigan · F
7.3

Match Events

43'
J. Windass
60'
S. Mounié← J. Koroma
65'
Florent Hadergjonaj
67'
Lee Evans
70'
K. Ahearne-Grant↳ J. Hogg
83'
J. Garner← J. Lowe
83'
A. Pilkington← G. Massey
85'
Trevoh Chalobah

Possession

52%Wigan

Shots

7Wigan

Pass accuracy

51%Wigan

Statistics

WiganHuddersfield
Overview
52%Possession48%
7Total Shots4
3Corners2
13Fouls20
Shots
7Total Shots4
2On Target4
3Off Target0
2Blocked0
3Inside Box3
4Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
427Total Passes394
343Accurate Passes308
80%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls20
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Wigan vs Huddersfield

Wigan and Huddersfield drew 1-1 in Championship on December 14, 2019.

Goals: J. Windass (43'), K. Ahearne-Grant (70').

Wigan controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 4.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.