Wigan 2–1 Blackpool: Result & Stats | Championship

Wigan

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blackpool

C. Tilt 88'

J. McClean 54'

G. Madine 34'

11/12/2022

Championship · Round 21DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Wigan44%

×Draw27%

Blackpool29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.04

Wigan

1.34

Blackpool

1.04

Wigan creates 29% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 52 away

1.16

creates per match

0.92

1.16

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Wigan

1.16

Blackpool

0.92

allows per match

Wigan

1.16

Blackpool

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

71%

Wigan or Blackpool

73%

Draw or Blackpool

56%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

20%

Blackpool wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

74%

Wigan 2+ goals

39%

Wigan 3+ goals

15%

Blackpool 1+ goals

65%

Blackpool 2+ goals

28%

Blackpool 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

60%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wigan scores more

44%

level

27%

Blackpool scores more

29%

Wigan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. McClean

Wigan · M

7.6

Match Events

17'

Marvin Ekpiteta

34'

G. Madine↳ C. Patino

40'

J. Bennett← J. Whatmough

45+4'

54'

58'

68'

68'

81'

84'

88'

89'

C. Hamilton← C. Patino

90+1'

Dominic Thompson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganBlackpool

Overview

71%Possession29%

18Total Shots4

8Corners3

11Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots4

3On Target1

6Off Target3

9Blocked0

9Inside Box3

9Outside Box1

Passing

71%Possession29%

490Total Passes203

403Accurate Passes119

82%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

Championship: Wigan 2–1 Blackpool

Wigan beat Blackpool 2-1 in Championship on November 12, 2022.

Goals: G. Madine (34'), J. McClean (54'), C. Tilt (88').

Wigan controlled possession (71%) and registered 18 shots to 4.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.

Wigan vs Blackpool — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Wigan 2–1 Blackpool