Wigan 0–5 Blackpool: Result & Stats | League One

Wigan

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Blackpool

E. Simms 90+1', 87'

M. Virtue-Thick 53'

J. Yates 42'

M. Ekpiteta 40'

1/26/2021

League One · Round 26DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Wigan46%

×Draw25%

Blackpool28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.14

Wigan

1.54

Blackpool

1.14

Wigan creates 35% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.34

creates per match

0.94

1.34

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Wigan

1.34

Blackpool

0.94

allows per match

Wigan

1.34

Blackpool

1.75

-0.45scores less than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Wigan-0.45scores less

Blackpool+0.36scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

72%

Wigan or Blackpool

75%

Draw or Blackpool

54%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

23%

Blackpool wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

79%

Wigan 2+ goals

45%

Wigan 3+ goals

20%

Blackpool 1+ goals

68%

Blackpool 2+ goals

32%

Blackpool 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

62%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.34 + Blackpool defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Blackpool attack 0.94 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wigan scores more

46%

level

25%

Blackpool scores more

28%

Wigan at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

E. Simms

Blackpool · F

8.3

Match Events

40'

M. Ekpiteta

42'

J. Yates

53'

M. Virtue-Thick↳ J. Husband

54'

Tendayi Darikwa

57'

D. Gardner← Z. Clough

69'

O. Crankshaw← K. Joseph

70'

E. Simms← J. Yates

70'

K. Stewart← E. Robson

77'

S. Kaikai← B. Lubala

81'

T. Aasgaard← W. Keane

87'

E. Simms

88'

O. Šarkić← M. Williams

88'

R. Apter← M. Virtue-Thick

90+1'

E. Simms↳ R. Apter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganBlackpool

Overview

57%Possession43%

7Total Shots21

5Corners4

11Fouls10

Shots

7Total Shots21

2On Target8

5Off Target3

0Blocked10

4Inside Box15

3Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

445Total Passes321

338Accurate Passes233

76%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2