Widzew Łódź 1–2 Pogon Szczecin: Result & Stats

Widzew Łódź

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Pogon Szczecin

12/16/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 19Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Widzew Łódź41%

×Draw27%

Pogon Szczecin32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Widzew ŁódźExpected goals in this matchPogon Szczecin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.17

Widzew Łódź

1.35

Pogon Szczecin

1.17

Widzew Łódź creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

1.26

creates per match

1.23

1.10

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Widzew Łódź

1.26

Pogon Szczecin

1.23

allows per match

Widzew Łódź

1.10

Pogon Szczecin

1.45

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.17scores more

Pogon Szczecin-0.36scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Pogon Szczecin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw

68%

Widzew Łódź or Pogon Szczecin

73%

Draw or Pogon Szczecin

59%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+

19%

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals

74%

Widzew Łódź 2+ goals

39%

Widzew Łódź 3+ goals

15%

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

69%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

33%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)

56%

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 14 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.26 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.23 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more

41%

level

27%

Pogon Szczecin scores more

32%

Widzew Łódź at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff