Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa — Ekstraklasa 2018

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa
3/10/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 24Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Widzew Łódź39%
×Draw25%
Legia Warszawa36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widzew Łódź
1.46
Legia Warszawa
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 21 away

creates per match

Widzew Łódź
1.26
Legia Warszawa
1.71

allows per match

Widzew Łódź
1.10
Legia Warszawa
1.65

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.17scores more
Legia Warszawa-0.14scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Legia Warszawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw
64%
Widzew Łódź or Legia Warszawa
75%
Draw or Legia Warszawa
61%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
18%
Legia Warszawa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
77%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
43%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
18%
Legia Warszawa 1+ goals
76%
Legia Warszawa 2+ goals
41%
Legia Warszawa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
51%
Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 14 matches

Legia Warszawa away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.65 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.26 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Legia Warszawa attack 1.71 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more
39%
level
25%
Legia Warszawa scores more
36%

Widzew Łódź at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Widzew Łódź vs Legia Warszawa

Widzew Łódź beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Łódź.