Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa 2018

Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
2/11/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 20Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Widzew Łódź42%
×Draw26%
Jagiellonia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Widzew Łódź
1.47
Jagiellonia
1.24

Widzew Łódź creates 19% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Widzew Łódź
1.26
Jagiellonia
1.37

allows per match

Widzew Łódź
1.10
Jagiellonia
1.68

finishing

Widzew Łódź+0.17scores more
Jagiellonia-0.10scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Widzew Łódź ↓

Jagiellonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Widzew Łódź or draw
68%
Widzew Łódź or Jagiellonia
74%
Draw or Jagiellonia
58%

Winning margin

Widzew Łódź wins by 2+
21%
Jagiellonia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Widzew Łódź 1+ goals
77%
Widzew Łódź 2+ goals
43%
Widzew Łódź 3+ goals
18%
Jagiellonia 1+ goals
71%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
35%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Widzew Łódź (draw refunded)
57%
Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Widzew Łódź at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 14 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.68 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Widzew Łódź attack 1.26 + Jagiellonia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.47

Jagiellonia attack 1.37 + Widzew Łódź defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Widzew Łódź scores more
42%
level
26%
Jagiellonia scores more
32%

Widzew Łódź at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Widzew Łódź will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia beat Widzew Łódź 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Łódź.