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Wiązownica vs KSZO 1929 — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wiązownica
Wiązownica
FT
3 – 2
KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
11/8/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Stadion Gminny Wiązownica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Wiązownica33%
×Draw24%
KSZO 192943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wiązownica
1.37
KSZO 1929
1.60

KSZO 1929 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 105 away

creates per match

Wiązownica
1.46
KSZO 1929
1.36

allows per match

Wiązownica
1.85
KSZO 1929
1.28

finishing

Wiązownica+0.00on par
KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wiązownica ↓

KSZO 1929 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wiązownica or draw
57%
Wiązownica or KSZO 1929
76%
Draw or KSZO 1929
67%

Winning margin

Wiązownica wins by 2+
15%
KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wiązownica 1+ goals
75%
Wiązownica 2+ goals
40%
Wiązownica 3+ goals
16%
KSZO 1929 1+ goals
80%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
47%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Wiązownica (draw refunded)
43%
KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wiązownica at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

KSZO 1929 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wiązownica attack 1.46 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.37

KSZO 1929 attack 1.36 + Wiązownica defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wiązownica scores more
33%
level
24%
KSZO 1929 scores more
43%

KSZO 1929 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wiązownica 3–2 KSZO 1929

Wiązownica beat KSZO 1929 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny Wiązownica in Wiązownica.