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White Star Woluwe W vs Zulte-Waregem W — Super League Women 2018

White Star Woluwe W
White Star Woluwe W
FT
2 – 0
Zulte-Waregem W
Zulte-Waregem W
5/8/2021Super League WomenSuper League Women · Relegation Round - 5Stade Communal Fallon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

White Star Woluwe W32%
×Draw26%
Zulte-Waregem W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

White Star Woluwe W
1.20
Zulte-Waregem W
1.39

Zulte-Waregem W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 80 away

creates per match

White Star Woluwe W
0.85
Zulte-Waregem W
0.99

allows per match

White Star Woluwe W
1.79
Zulte-Waregem W
1.54

finishing

White Star Woluwe W+0.00on par
Zulte-Waregem W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

White Star Woluwe W ↓

Zulte-Waregem W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

White Star Woluwe W or draw
59%
White Star Woluwe W or Zulte-Waregem W
74%
Draw or Zulte-Waregem W
68%

Winning margin

White Star Woluwe W wins by 2+
13%
Zulte-Waregem W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

White Star Woluwe W 1+ goals
70%
White Star Woluwe W 2+ goals
34%
White Star Woluwe W 3+ goals
12%
Zulte-Waregem W 1+ goals
75%
Zulte-Waregem W 2+ goals
40%
Zulte-Waregem W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

White Star Woluwe W (draw refunded)
44%
Zulte-Waregem W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

White Star Woluwe W at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

Zulte-Waregem W away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.54 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

White Star Woluwe W attack 0.85 + Zulte-Waregem W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.20

Zulte-Waregem W attack 0.99 + White Star Woluwe W defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

White Star Woluwe W scores more
32%
level
26%
Zulte-Waregem W scores more
41%

Zulte-Waregem W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zulte-Waregem W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: White Star Woluwe W vs Zulte-Waregem W

White Star Woluwe W beat Zulte-Waregem W 2-0 in Super League Women on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Communal Fallon in Brussels.