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Whitby Town vs Lancaster City — League #59 2026

Whitby Town
Whitby Town
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Lancaster City
Lancaster City
R. Wilson 71' (pen)
C. Bailey 47'
L. Brockbank 15'
1/8/2022League #59League #59 · Northern - 26Turnbull Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Whitby Town31%
×Draw24%
Lancaster City45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Whitby Town
1.35
Lancaster City
1.65

Lancaster City creates 22% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Whitby Town
1.20
Lancaster City
1.50

allows per match

Whitby Town
1.80
Lancaster City
1.50

finishing

Whitby Town+0.00on par
Lancaster City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Whitby Town ↓

Lancaster City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Whitby Town or draw
55%
Whitby Town or Lancaster City
76%
Draw or Lancaster City
69%

Winning margin

Whitby Town wins by 2+
14%
Lancaster City wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Whitby Town 1+ goals
74%
Whitby Town 2+ goals
39%
Whitby Town 3+ goals
15%
Lancaster City 1+ goals
81%
Lancaster City 2+ goals
49%
Lancaster City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Whitby Town (draw refunded)
41%
Lancaster City (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Whitby Town at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Lancaster City away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Whitby Town attack 1.20 + Lancaster City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Lancaster City attack 1.50 + Whitby Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Whitby Town scores more
31%
level
24%
Lancaster City scores more
45%

Lancaster City at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lancaster City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
L. Brockbank
47'
C. Bailey
71'
R. WilsonPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Whitby Town vs Lancaster City

Lancaster City beat Whitby Town 3-0 in League #59 on January 8, 2022.

Goals: L. Brockbank (15'), C. Bailey (47'), R. Wilson (71' pen).

The match was played at Turnbull Ground in Whitby, North Yorkshire.