Weymouth Wales 2–1 Brittons Hill: Result & Stats

Weymouth Wales

FT

2 – 1

Brittons Hill

3/24/2024

Premier League · Round 4Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Weymouth Wales57%

×Draw20%

Brittons Hill23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weymouth WalesExpected goals in this matchBrittons Hill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.43

Weymouth Wales

2.31

Brittons Hill

1.43

Weymouth Wales creates 62% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 40 away

2.87

creates per match

2.02

0.83

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Weymouth Wales

2.87

Brittons Hill

2.02

allows per match

Weymouth Wales

0.83

Brittons Hill

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Brittons Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weymouth Wales ↓

Brittons Hill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Weymouth Wales or draw

77%

Weymouth Wales or Brittons Hill

80%

Draw or Brittons Hill

43%

Winning margin

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+

35%

Brittons Hill wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals

90%

Weymouth Wales 2+ goals

67%

Weymouth Wales 3+ goals

40%

Brittons Hill 1+ goals

76%

Brittons Hill 2+ goals

42%

Brittons Hill 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)

71%

Brittons Hill (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weymouth Wales at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Brittons Hill away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.75 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weymouth Wales attack 2.87 + Brittons Hill defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.31

Brittons Hill attack 2.02 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Weymouth Wales scores more

57%

level

20%

Brittons Hill scores more

23%

Weymouth Wales at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff