Wexford 1–1 Cork City: Result & Stats

Wexford

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cork City

M. Rowe 64'

J. Umeh 3'

4/1/2024

First Division · Round 8Ferrycarrig Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Wexford25%

×Draw25%

Cork City50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WexfordExpected goals in this matchCork City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.57

Wexford

1.02

Cork City

1.57

Cork City creates 54% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 59 away

1.24

creates per match

1.59

1.55

allows per match

0.81

creates per match

Wexford

1.24

Cork City

1.59

allows per match

Wexford

1.55

Cork City

0.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wexford+0.00on par

Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wexford ↓

Cork City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wexford or draw

50%

Wexford or Cork City

75%

Draw or Cork City

75%

Winning margin

Wexford wins by 2+

9%

Cork City wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Wexford 1+ goals

64%

Wexford 2+ goals

27%

Wexford 3+ goals

8%

Cork City 1+ goals

79%

Cork City 2+ goals

46%

Cork City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Wexford (draw refunded)

33%

Cork City (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wexford at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.55 · 119 matches

Cork City away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.81 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wexford attack 1.24 + Cork City defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.02

Cork City attack 1.59 + Wexford defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wexford scores more

25%

level

25%

Cork City scores more

50%

Cork City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

J. Umeh

39'

J. O'Donovan

46'

L. Lovic← D. Levingston

46'

57'

58'

58'

60'

C. O'Sullivan← C. Bargary

60'

J. Fitzpatrick← J. Umeh

64'

M. Rowe

68'

A. Dobbs

84'

C. Curtis← K. Harnett

Wexford

Cork

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: J. Keddy

46'▲L. Lovic←▼D. Levingston

46'▲T. Oluwa←▼B. McCann

84'▲C. Curtis←▼K. Harnett

Wexford substitutes

LovicOluwaCurtisMoodyLennoxCrawfordO'Toole

Manager: T. Clancy

60'▲C. O'Sullivan←▼C. Bargary

60'▲J. Fitzpatrick←▼J. Umeh

Cork City substitutes

O'SullivanFitzpatrickCrowleyMoynihanDohertyMurrayBrookwellWoodCrowe