Wexford 4–4 Athlone Town: Result & Stats

Wexford

FT

4 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Athlone Town

K. Robinson 79', 74', 29'

J. Doherty 48' (pen)

A. Wixted 89'

S. Barnes 86', 63'

D. Hand 76'

7/2/2021

First Division · Round 14Ferrycarrig Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Wexford44%

×Draw25%

Athlone Town32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WexfordExpected goals in this matchAthlone Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.29

Wexford

1.56

Athlone Town

1.29

Wexford creates 21% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 119 away

1.24

creates per match

1.04

1.55

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Wexford

1.24

Athlone Town

1.04

allows per match

Wexford

1.55

Athlone Town

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wexford+0.00on par

Athlone Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wexford ↓

Athlone Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wexford or draw

68%

Wexford or Athlone Town

75%

Draw or Athlone Town

56%

Winning margin

Wexford wins by 2+

22%

Athlone Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wexford 1+ goals

79%

Wexford 2+ goals

46%

Wexford 3+ goals

21%

Athlone Town 1+ goals

72%

Athlone Town 2+ goals

37%

Athlone Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wexford (draw refunded)

58%

Athlone Town (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wexford at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.55 · 119 matches

Athlone Town away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.89 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wexford attack 1.24 + Athlone Town defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.56

Athlone Town attack 1.04 + Wexford defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wexford scores more

44%

level

25%

Athlone Town scores more

32%

Wexford at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wexford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

J. Carroll← C. Kelly

29'

K. Robinson

40'

45'

48'

J. DohertyPenalty

51'

D. Brookes← J. Doona

51'

G. Comerford← J. Hollywood

63'

S. Barnes

67'

D. Dobbin← K. Fitzsimons

74'

K. Robinson

75'

H. Groome← J. Doherty

75'

K. McEvoy← J. Moylan

76'

D. Hand

79'

K. Robinson

84'

85'

B. McCann← D. McKenna

85'

O. Duffy← A. Friel

86'

S. Barnes

89'

A. Wixted

90+3'

Wexford

Athlone

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽3

Manager: I. Ryan

22'▲J. Carroll←▼C. Kelly

67'▲D. Dobbin←▼K. Fitzsimons

75'▲H. Groome←▼J. Doherty

75'▲K. McEvoy←▼J. Moylan

Wexford substitutes

CarrollDobbinGroomeMcEvoyDolanFarrellConnollyEdogunMartin

Manager: A. Carberry

51'▲D. Brookes←▼J. Doona

51'▲G. Comerford←▼J. Hollywood

85'▲B. McCann←▼D. McKenna

85'▲O. Duffy←▼A. Friel

Athlone Town substitutes

BrookesComerfordMcCannDuffyReynoldsRiceDuffyTlouO'Sullivan

First Division: Wexford 4–4 Athlone Town

Wexford and Athlone Town drew 4-4 in First Division on July 2, 2021.

Goals: K. Robinson (29', 74', 79'), J. Doherty (48' pen), S. Barnes (63', 86'), D. Hand (76'), A. Wixted (89').

The match was played at Ferrycarrig Park in Newcastle, Crossabeg.

Wexford vs Athlone Town — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First Division: Wexford 4–4 Athlone Town