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Weston vs Sarasota Metropolis — USL League Two 2018

Weston
Weston
PST
23:30
Sarasota Metropolis
Sarasota Metropolis
6/17/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 33Houston Baptist University Soccer Field (Houston, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Weston50%
×Draw22%
Sarasota Metropolis28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weston
1.95
Sarasota Metropolis
1.40

Weston creates 39% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 5 away

creates per match

Weston
1.29
Sarasota Metropolis
1.40

allows per match

Weston
1.39
Sarasota Metropolis
2.60

finishing

Weston+0.00on par
Sarasota Metropolis+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston ↓

Sarasota Metropolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Weston or draw
72%
Weston or Sarasota Metropolis
78%
Draw or Sarasota Metropolis
50%

Winning margin

Weston wins by 2+
29%
Sarasota Metropolis wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Weston 1+ goals
86%
Weston 2+ goals
58%
Weston 3+ goals
31%
Sarasota Metropolis 1+ goals
75%
Sarasota Metropolis 2+ goals
41%
Sarasota Metropolis 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Weston (draw refunded)
64%
Sarasota Metropolis (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Sarasota Metropolis away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston attack 1.29 + Sarasota Metropolis defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.95

Sarasota Metropolis attack 1.40 + Weston defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Weston scores more
50%
level
22%
Sarasota Metropolis scores more
28%

Weston at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Weston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Weston face Sarasota Metropolis (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Weston hosting Sarasota Metropolis. Match starts June 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Weston host Sarasota Metropolis at Houston Baptist University Soccer Field (Houston, Texas).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.