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Weston vs Florida Elite — USL League Two 2018

Weston
Weston
PST
23:30
Florida Elite
Florida Elite
5/13/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 3Cypress Bay High School (Weston, Florida)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Weston36%
×Draw26%
Florida Elite38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weston
1.35
Florida Elite
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

creates per match

Weston
1.29
Florida Elite
1.37

allows per match

Weston
1.39
Florida Elite
1.41

finishing

Weston+0.00on par
Florida Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston ↓

Florida Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Weston or draw
62%
Weston or Florida Elite
74%
Draw or Florida Elite
64%

Winning margin

Weston wins by 2+
16%
Florida Elite wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Weston 1+ goals
74%
Weston 2+ goals
39%
Weston 3+ goals
15%
Florida Elite 1+ goals
75%
Florida Elite 2+ goals
40%
Florida Elite 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Weston (draw refunded)
49%
Florida Elite (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

Florida Elite away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston attack 1.29 + Florida Elite defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Florida Elite attack 1.37 + Weston defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Weston scores more
36%
level
26%
Florida Elite scores more
38%

Florida Elite at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Florida Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Weston vs Florida Elite — Match Preview

Weston face Florida Elite on May 13, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Weston host Florida Elite at Cypress Bay High School (Weston, Florida).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.