Weston-super-Mare 1–1 Hampton & Richmond

Weston-super-Mare

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hampton & Richmond

M. Jackson 68'

M. Bloomfield 40'

9/9/2023

League #51 · South - 9Woodspring Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Weston-super-Mare55%

×Draw23%

Hampton & Richmond22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weston-super-MareExpected goals in this matchHampton & Richmond

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.02

Weston-super-Mare

1.77

Hampton & Richmond

1.02

Weston-super-Mare creates 74% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

1.80

creates per match

0.75

1.30

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Weston-super-Mare

1.80

Hampton & Richmond

0.75

allows per match

Weston-super-Mare

1.30

Hampton & Richmond

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Weston-super-Mare+0.00on par

Hampton & Richmond+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weston-super-Mare ↓

Hampton & Richmond →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Weston-super-Mare or draw

78%

Weston-super-Mare or Hampton & Richmond

77%

Draw or Hampton & Richmond

45%

Winning margin

Weston-super-Mare wins by 2+

31%

Hampton & Richmond wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Weston-super-Mare 1+ goals

83%

Weston-super-Mare 2+ goals

53%

Weston-super-Mare 3+ goals

26%

Hampton & Richmond 1+ goals

64%

Hampton & Richmond 2+ goals

27%

Hampton & Richmond 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Weston-super-Mare (draw refunded)

72%

Hampton & Richmond (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weston-super-Mare at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Hampton & Richmond away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weston-super-Mare attack 1.80 + Hampton & Richmond defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.77

Hampton & Richmond attack 0.75 + Weston-super-Mare defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Weston-super-Mare scores more

55%

level

23%

Hampton & Richmond scores more

22%

Weston-super-Mare at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Weston-super-Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

M. Bloomfield

68'

M. Jackson

70'

A. Whittingham← B. Seymour

70'

I. Pitblado← R. Donaldson

84'

J. Cheadle← D. Inman

90+10'

J. Murray← J. Soule

Weston-super-Mare

Hampton

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Bartlett

90+10'▲J. Murray←▼J. Soule

Weston-super-Mare substitutes

MurrayKempsterCanePurnellEdwards

Manager: M. Gwinnett

70'▲A. Whittingham←▼B. Seymour

70'▲I. Pitblado←▼R. Donaldson

84'▲J. Cheadle←▼D. Inman

Hampton & Richmond substitutes

WhittinghamPitbladoCheadleSolomonVazagashvili