Western United 0–1 Western Sydney Wanderers

Western United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Western Sydney Wanderers

3/7/2021

A-League · Round 11Mars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Western United42%

×Draw24%

Western Sydney Wanderers34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western UnitedExpected goals in this matchWestern Sydney Wanderers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.46

Western United

1.66

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.46

Western United creates 14% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 105 away

1.54

creates per match

1.51

1.41

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Western United

1.54

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.51

allows per match

Western United

1.41

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western United+0.00on par

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Western United or draw

66%

Western United or Western Sydney Wanderers

76%

Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers

58%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+

22%

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals

81%

Western United 2+ goals

49%

Western United 3+ goals

23%

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals

77%

Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals

43%

Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)

56%

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.77 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.54 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.66

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.51 + Western United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Western United scores more

42%

level

24%

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more

34%

Western United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Western United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff