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Western United vs Wellington Phoenix — Australia Cup 2021

Western United
Western United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wellington Phoenix
Wellington Phoenixadvanced
12/7/2021Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 32GMHBA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Western United40%
×Draw27%
Wellington Phoenix33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United
1.30
Wellington Phoenix
1.15

Western United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

creates per match

Western United
1.00
Wellington Phoenix
1.30

allows per match

Western United
1.00
Wellington Phoenix
1.60

finishing

Western United+0.00on par
Wellington Phoenix+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Wellington Phoenix →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Western United or draw
67%
Western United or Wellington Phoenix
73%
Draw or Wellington Phoenix
60%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+
18%
Wellington Phoenix wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals
73%
Western United 2+ goals
37%
Western United 3+ goals
14%
Wellington Phoenix 1+ goals
68%
Wellington Phoenix 2+ goals
32%
Wellington Phoenix 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)
55%
Wellington Phoenix (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Wellington Phoenix away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.00 + Wellington Phoenix defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Wellington Phoenix attack 1.30 + Western United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Western United scores more
40%
level
27%
Wellington Phoenix scores more
33%

Western United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Western United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western United vs Wellington Phoenix

Wellington Phoenix beat Western United 1-0 in Australia Cup on December 7, 2021.

The match was played at GMHBA Stadium in Geelong.