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Western United vs Melbourne Victory — Australia Cup 2021

Western United
Western Unitedadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory
8/3/2022Australia CupAustralia Cup · Round of 32AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Western United17%
×Draw22%
Melbourne Victory61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United
0.83
Melbourne Victory
1.83

Melbourne Victory creates 120% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Western United
1.00
Melbourne Victory
2.67

allows per match

Western United
1.00
Melbourne Victory
0.67

finishing

Western United+0.00on par
Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Melbourne Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Western United or draw
39%
Western United or Melbourne Victory
78%
Draw or Melbourne Victory
83%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+
5%
Melbourne Victory wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals
56%
Western United 2+ goals
20%
Western United 3+ goals
5%
Melbourne Victory 1+ goals
84%
Melbourne Victory 2+ goals
54%
Melbourne Victory 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)
21%
Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.00 + Melbourne Victory defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Melbourne Victory attack 2.67 + Western United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Western United scores more
17%
level
22%
Melbourne Victory scores more
61%

Melbourne Victory at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Melbourne Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Australia Cup: Western United 2–1 Melbourne Victory

Western United beat Melbourne Victory 2-1 in Australia Cup on August 3, 2022.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.