Western United 3–1 Melbourne Victory

Western United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Melbourne Victory

B. Berisha 43', 17'

P. Kone 24'

A. Nabbout 14'

12/8/2019

A-League · Round 9GMHBA Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Western United40%

×Draw25%

Melbourne Victory35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western UnitedExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.39

Western United

1.49

Melbourne Victory

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 109 away

1.54

creates per match

1.36

1.41

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Western United

1.54

Melbourne Victory

1.36

allows per match

Western United

1.41

Melbourne Victory

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western United+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Western United or draw

65%

Western United or Melbourne Victory

75%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

60%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+

19%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals

77%

Western United 2+ goals

44%

Western United 3+ goals

19%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

75%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

40%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)

53%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.54 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.49

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Western United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Western United scores more

40%

level

25%

Melbourne Victory scores more

35%

Western United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Western United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

B. Berisha

Western United · F

8.2

Match Events

14'

A. Nabbout↳ J. Poulsen

17'

B. Berisha↳ C. Pain

24'

P. Kone↳ A. Diamanti

29'

Adama Traoré

43'

B. Berisha↳ J. Risdon

46'

46'

53'

63'

66'

68'

70'

A. Stamatelopoulos← D. Jertec

72'

J. Hope← A. Nabbout

75'

Jonathan Aspropotamitis

83'

D. Pierias← B. Berisha

84'

Jerry Skotadis

85'

Brendan Hamill

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WesternMelbourne

Overview

36%Possession64%

12Total Shots19

3Corners13

14Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots19

5On Target7

6Off Target10

1Blocked2

9Inside Box15

3Outside Box4

Passing

36%Possession64%

274Total Passes477

199Accurate Passes401

73%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

5Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3