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Western United vs Melbourne City — A-League 2018

Western United
Western United
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
4/22/2023A-LeagueA-League · Round 25AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Western United38%
×Draw24%
Melbourne City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United
1.50
Melbourne City
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 108 away

creates per match

Western United
1.54
Melbourne City
1.56

allows per match

Western United
1.41
Melbourne City
1.45

finishing

Western United+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Western United or draw
63%
Western United or Melbourne City
76%
Draw or Melbourne City
62%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+
18%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals
78%
Western United 2+ goals
44%
Western United 3+ goals
19%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
77%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
43%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)
51%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.45 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.54 + Melbourne City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Melbourne City attack 1.56 + Western United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Western United scores more
38%
level
24%
Melbourne City scores more
37%

Western United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Western United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Western United 1–3 Melbourne City

Melbourne City beat Western United 3-1 in A-League on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.