Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Western United vs Macarthur — A-League 2018

Western United
Western United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Macarthur
Macarthur
5/31/2021A-LeagueA-League · Round 23Leichhardt Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Western United44%
×Draw24%
Macarthur32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United
1.67
Macarthur
1.40

Western United creates 19% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

creates per match

Western United
1.54
Macarthur
1.38

allows per match

Western United
1.41
Macarthur
1.79

finishing

Western United+0.00on par
Macarthur+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Macarthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Western United or draw
68%
Western United or Macarthur
76%
Draw or Macarthur
56%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+
23%
Macarthur wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals
81%
Western United 2+ goals
50%
Western United 3+ goals
23%
Macarthur 1+ goals
75%
Macarthur 2+ goals
41%
Macarthur 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)
58%
Macarthur (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Macarthur away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.79 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.54 + Macarthur defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Macarthur attack 1.38 + Western United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Western United scores more
44%
level
24%
Macarthur scores more
32%

Western United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Western United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western United vs Macarthur

Macarthur beat Western United 2-1 in A-League on May 31, 2021.

The match was played at Leichhardt Oval in Sydney.