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Western United vs Central Coast Mariners — A-League 2018

Western United
Western United
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Central Coast Mariners
Central Coast Mariners
4/2/2022A-LeagueA-League · Round 21Mars Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Western United42%
×Draw24%
Central Coast Mariners34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United
1.59
Central Coast Mariners
1.42

Western United creates 12% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 109 away

creates per match

Western United
1.54
Central Coast Mariners
1.42

allows per match

Western United
1.41
Central Coast Mariners
1.65

finishing

Western United+0.00on par
Central Coast Mariners+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Central Coast Mariners →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Western United or draw
66%
Western United or Central Coast Mariners
76%
Draw or Central Coast Mariners
58%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+
21%
Central Coast Mariners wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals
80%
Western United 2+ goals
47%
Western United 3+ goals
21%
Central Coast Mariners 1+ goals
76%
Central Coast Mariners 2+ goals
41%
Central Coast Mariners 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)
55%
Central Coast Mariners (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Central Coast Mariners away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.54 + Central Coast Mariners defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.59

Central Coast Mariners attack 1.42 + Western United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Western United scores more
42%
level
24%
Central Coast Mariners scores more
34%

Western United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Western United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Western United 2–2 Central Coast Mariners

Western United and Central Coast Mariners drew 2-2 in A-League on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Mars Stadium in Ballarat.