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Western United vs Brisbane Roar — A-League 2018

Western United
Western United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Brisbane Roar
Brisbane Roar
12/30/2022A-LeagueA-League · Round 10AAMI Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Western United46%
×Draw24%
Brisbane Roar30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western United
1.63
Brisbane Roar
1.28

Western United creates 27% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 105 away

creates per match

Western United
1.54
Brisbane Roar
1.15

allows per match

Western United
1.41
Brisbane Roar
1.72

finishing

Western United+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western United ↓

Brisbane Roar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Western United or draw
70%
Western United or Brisbane Roar
76%
Draw or Brisbane Roar
54%

Winning margin

Western United wins by 2+
24%
Brisbane Roar wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Western United 1+ goals
80%
Western United 2+ goals
48%
Western United 3+ goals
22%
Brisbane Roar 1+ goals
72%
Brisbane Roar 2+ goals
37%
Brisbane Roar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Western United (draw refunded)
60%
Brisbane Roar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western United at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

Brisbane Roar away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western United attack 1.54 + Brisbane Roar defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.63

Brisbane Roar attack 1.15 + Western United defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Western United scores more
46%
level
24%
Brisbane Roar scores more
30%

Western United at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Western United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A-League: Western United 1–1 Brisbane Roar

Western United and Brisbane Roar drew 1-1 in A-League on December 30, 2022.

The match was played at AAMI Park in Melbourne.