Western Sydney Wanderers 2–0 Newcastle Jets

Western Sydney Wanderers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Newcastle Jets

10/28/2022

A-League · Round 4CommBank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers43%

×Draw24%

Newcastle Jets33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western Sydney WanderersExpected goals in this matchNewcastle Jets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.37

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.61

Newcastle Jets

1.37

Western Sydney Wanderers creates 18% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 107 away

1.56

creates per match

1.33

1.41

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.56

Newcastle Jets

1.33

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.41

Newcastle Jets

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Newcastle Jets+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers ↓

Newcastle Jets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers or draw

67%

Western Sydney Wanderers or Newcastle Jets

76%

Draw or Newcastle Jets

57%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+

22%

Newcastle Jets wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals

80%

Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals

48%

Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals

22%

Newcastle Jets 1+ goals

75%

Newcastle Jets 2+ goals

40%

Newcastle Jets 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)

57%

Newcastle Jets (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Newcastle Jets away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.56 + Newcastle Jets defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Newcastle Jets attack 1.33 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more

43%

level

24%

Newcastle Jets scores more

33%

Western Sydney Wanderers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff