Western Sydney Wanderers 3–4 Melbourne Victory

Western Sydney Wanderers

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Melbourne Victory

12/10/2023

A-League · Round 7CommBank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers40%

×Draw25%

Melbourne Victory35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western Sydney WanderersExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Victory

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.39

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.50

Melbourne Victory

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 109 away

1.56

creates per match

1.36

1.41

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.56

Melbourne Victory

1.36

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers

1.41

Melbourne Victory

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par

Melbourne Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers ↓

Melbourne Victory →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers or draw

65%

Western Sydney Wanderers or Melbourne Victory

75%

Draw or Melbourne Victory

60%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+

19%

Melbourne Victory wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals

78%

Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals

44%

Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals

19%

Melbourne Victory 1+ goals

75%

Melbourne Victory 2+ goals

40%

Melbourne Victory 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)

53%

Melbourne Victory (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.56 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50

Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more

40%

level

25%

Melbourne Victory scores more

35%

Western Sydney Wanderers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff