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Western Sydney Wanderers vs Adelaide United — A-League 2018

Western Sydney Wanderers
Western Sydney Wanderers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Adelaide United
Adelaide United
12/15/2023A-LeagueA-League · Round 8CommBank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers41%
×Draw23%
Adelaide United35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers
1.67
Adelaide United
1.52

Western Sydney Wanderers creates 10% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 109 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers
1.56
Adelaide United
1.62

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers
1.41
Adelaide United
1.78

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers+0.00on par
Adelaide United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers ↓

Adelaide United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers or draw
65%
Western Sydney Wanderers or Adelaide United
77%
Draw or Adelaide United
59%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers wins by 2+
21%
Adelaide United wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers 1+ goals
81%
Western Sydney Wanderers 2+ goals
50%
Western Sydney Wanderers 3+ goals
23%
Adelaide United 1+ goals
78%
Adelaide United 2+ goals
45%
Adelaide United 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers (draw refunded)
54%
Adelaide United (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Adelaide United away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.78 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers attack 1.56 + Adelaide United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Adelaide United attack 1.62 + Western Sydney Wanderers defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers scores more
41%
level
23%
Adelaide United scores more
35%

Western Sydney Wanderers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Sydney Wanderers vs Adelaide United

Western Sydney Wanderers beat Adelaide United 1-0 in A-League on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at CommBank Stadium in Sydney.