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Western Sydney Wanderers U23 vs Rockdale City Suns — New South Wales NPL 2026

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Rockdale City Suns
Rockdale City Suns
N. Blair 90+3'
Z. Sapsford 42'
A. Urosevski 45+3'
D. Pelekanos 26'
O. Sunmola 17'
3/3/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 3Wanderers Football Park Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2333%
×Draw23%
Rockdale City Suns44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.48
Rockdale City Suns
1.73

Rockdale City Suns creates 17% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 94 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.47
Rockdale City Suns
1.73

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.74
Rockdale City Suns
1.50

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U23+0.00on par
Rockdale City Suns+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 ↓

Rockdale City Suns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or draw
56%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or Rockdale City Suns
77%
Draw or Rockdale City Suns
67%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 wins by 2+
15%
Rockdale City Suns wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 1+ goals
77%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2+ goals
43%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3+ goals
19%
Rockdale City Suns 1+ goals
82%
Rockdale City Suns 2+ goals
52%
Rockdale City Suns 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (draw refunded)
43%
Rockdale City Suns (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

Rockdale City Suns away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 attack 1.47 + Rockdale City Suns defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Rockdale City Suns attack 1.73 + Western Sydney Wanderers U23 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 scores more
33%
level
23%
Rockdale City Suns scores more
44%

Rockdale City Suns at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rockdale City Suns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
O. Sunmola
26'
D. Pelekanos
42'
Z. Sapsford
45+3'
A. Urosevski
90+3'
N. Blair

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2–3 Rockdale City Suns

Rockdale City Suns beat Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3-2 in New South Wales NPL on March 3, 2024.

Goals: O. Sunmola (17'), D. Pelekanos (26'), Z. Sapsford (42'), A. Urosevski (45+3'), N. Blair (90+3').

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park Academy in Sydney.