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Western Sydney vs Perth Glory FC — A-League 2018

Western Sydney
Western Sydney
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Perth Glory FC
Perth Glory FC
T. Elrich 90+5'
C. Ikonomidis 23'
2/24/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 20Spotless Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 106+ matches

Western Sydney46%
×Draw24%
Perth Glory FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney
1.70
Perth Glory FC
1.32

Western Sydney creates 29% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 106 away

creates per match

Western Sydney
1.56
Perth Glory FC
1.23

allows per match

Western Sydney
1.41
Perth Glory FC
1.83

finishing

Western Sydney+0.00on par
Perth Glory FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney ↓

Perth Glory FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Western Sydney or draw
70%
Western Sydney or Perth Glory FC
76%
Draw or Perth Glory FC
54%

Winning margin

Western Sydney wins by 2+
24%
Perth Glory FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Western Sydney 1+ goals
82%
Western Sydney 2+ goals
51%
Western Sydney 3+ goals
24%
Perth Glory FC 1+ goals
73%
Perth Glory FC 2+ goals
38%
Perth Glory FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney (draw refunded)
61%
Perth Glory FC (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Perth Glory FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.83 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney attack 1.56 + Perth Glory FC defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.70

Perth Glory FC attack 1.23 + Western Sydney defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Western Sydney scores more
46%
level
24%
Perth Glory FC scores more
30%

Western Sydney at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Western Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
T. ElrichWestern SydneyWestern Sydney · D
7.6

Match Events

16'
R. Mahazi← J. ODoherty
23'
C. Ikonomidis↳ Diego Castro
45'
Andy Keogh
58'
Matthew Spiranovic
60'
M. Duke← A. Baumjohann
68'
J. Chianese← A. Keogh
69'
Shane Lowry
75'
S. Neville← D. Đulbić
77'
M. Bridge← Oriol Riera
83'
J. Brimmer← C. Ikonomidis
85'
Roly Bonevacia
90'
Liam Reddy
90+5'
T. Elrich↳ A. Majok

Possession

53%Western

Shots

9Western

Pass accuracy

52%Western

Statistics

WesternPerth
Overview
53%Possession47%
9Total Shots9
3Corners8
10Fouls7
Shots
9Total Shots9
3On Target4
3Off Target3
3Blocked2
5Inside Box8
4Outside Box1
Passing
53%Possession47%
569Total Passes504
496Accurate Passes406
87%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls7
1Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

A-League: Western Sydney 1–1 Perth Glory FC

Western Sydney and Perth Glory FC drew 1-1 in A-League on February 24, 2019.

Goals: C. Ikonomidis (23'), T. Elrich (90+5').

Western Sydney controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 9.

The match was played at Spotless Stadium in Sydney.