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Western Sydney vs Newcastle Jets FC — A-League 2018

Western Sydney
Western Sydney
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Newcastle Jets FC
Newcastle Jets FC
R. Vargas 90+4'
J. Hoffman 25'
11/23/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 5Spotless Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Western Sydney43%
×Draw24%
Newcastle Jets FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney
1.61
Newcastle Jets FC
1.37

Western Sydney creates 18% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 107 away

creates per match

Western Sydney
1.56
Newcastle Jets FC
1.33

allows per match

Western Sydney
1.41
Newcastle Jets FC
1.67

finishing

Western Sydney+0.00on par
Newcastle Jets FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney ↓

Newcastle Jets FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Western Sydney or draw
67%
Western Sydney or Newcastle Jets FC
76%
Draw or Newcastle Jets FC
57%

Winning margin

Western Sydney wins by 2+
22%
Newcastle Jets FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Western Sydney 1+ goals
80%
Western Sydney 2+ goals
48%
Western Sydney 3+ goals
22%
Newcastle Jets FC 1+ goals
75%
Newcastle Jets FC 2+ goals
40%
Newcastle Jets FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney (draw refunded)
57%
Newcastle Jets FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Newcastle Jets FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney attack 1.56 + Newcastle Jets FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.61

Newcastle Jets FC attack 1.33 + Western Sydney defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Western Sydney scores more
43%
level
24%
Newcastle Jets FC scores more
33%

Western Sydney at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Western Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
J. HoffmanNewcastle Jets FCNewcastle Jets FC · D
7.9

Match Events

25'
J. Hoffman↳ N. Topor-Stanley
73'
A. Thurgate← Jair
74'
Jason Hoffman
79'
N. Cowburn← J. Hoffman
81'
M. Tokich← J. ODoherty
83'
I. Vujica← D. Georgievski
90+4'
R. Vargas↳ D. Petratos

Possession

53%Western

Shots

18Western

Pass accuracy

49%Western

Statistics

WesternNewcastle
Overview
53%Possession47%
18Total Shots13
8Corners4
14Fouls16
Shots
18Total Shots13
5On Target5
9Off Target4
4Blocked4
13Inside Box8
5Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
440Total Passes404
345Accurate Passes328
78%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls16
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides4

A-League: Western Sydney 0–2 Newcastle Jets FC

Newcastle Jets FC beat Western Sydney 2-0 in A-League on November 23, 2018.

Goals: J. Hoffman (25'), R. Vargas (90+4').

Western Sydney controlled possession (53%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Spotless Stadium in Sydney.