Western Sydney vs Melbourne Victory — A-League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 107+ matches
Western Sydney40%
Melbourne Victory35%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 107 home / 109 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Western Sydney ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Western Sydney at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches
Melbourne Victory away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.44 · 109 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Western Sydney attack 1.56 + Melbourne Victory defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.50
Melbourne Victory attack 1.36 + Western Sydney defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.39
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Western Sydney at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Western Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Perth Glory FC
Sydney FCMelbourne Victory
Adelaide United
Melbourne City
Wellington Phoenix
Newcastle Jets FCWestern Sydney
Brisbane Roar FC
Central Coast Mariners FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Western Sydney host Melbourne Victory on Saturday, 5 January 2019 at 08:50. The match is part of the A-League 2018/2019 season.
A-League: Western Sydney 1–2 Melbourne Victory
Melbourne Victory beat Western Sydney 2-1 in A-League on January 5, 2019.
Goals: O. Toivonen (45', 86'), A. Baumjohann (74' pen).
Melbourne Victory controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 25.
The match was played at ANZ Stadium in Sydney.