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Western Sydney vs Melbourne City — A-League 2018

Western Sydney
Western Sydney
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
R. De Laet 37'
L. Wales 35'
1/1/2019A-LeagueA-League · Round 10Spotless Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Western Sydney38%
×Draw24%
Melbourne City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney
1.50
Melbourne City
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 108 away

creates per match

Western Sydney
1.56
Melbourne City
1.56

allows per match

Western Sydney
1.41
Melbourne City
1.45

finishing

Western Sydney+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Western Sydney or draw
63%
Western Sydney or Melbourne City
76%
Draw or Melbourne City
62%

Winning margin

Western Sydney wins by 2+
18%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Western Sydney 1+ goals
78%
Western Sydney 2+ goals
44%
Western Sydney 3+ goals
19%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
77%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
43%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney (draw refunded)
51%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.45 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney attack 1.56 + Melbourne City defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.50

Melbourne City attack 1.56 + Western Sydney defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Western Sydney scores more
38%
level
24%
Melbourne City scores more
37%

Western Sydney at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Western Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
E. GalekovićMelbourne CityMelbourne City · G
9.2

Match Events

13'
Bruce Kamau
13'
Rostyn Griffiths
35'
L. Wales↳ D. Vidošić
37'
R. De Laet↳ R. McGree
46'
Riley Mcgree
53'
Alexander Baumjohann
56'
Rostyn Griffiths
56'
Rostyn Griffiths
62'
O. Malik← L. Brattan
69'
N. Atkinson← R. McGree
73'
R. Najjarine← R. De Laet
76'
Keanu Baccus
78'
Ramy Najjarine
78'
N. Fitzgerald← J. ODoherty
78'
A. Majok← B. Kamau
85'
Nathaniel Atkinson
85'
T. Mourdoukoutas← Raúl Llorente
89'
Brendan Hamill
90'
Scott Jamieson

Possession

48%Western

Shots

17Western

Pass accuracy

50%Western

Statistics

WesternMelbourne
Overview
48%Possession52%
17Total Shots9
12Corners3
13Fouls17
Shots
17Total Shots9
6On Target2
3Off Target3
8Blocked4
12Inside Box6
5Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
441Total Passes504
361Accurate Passes415
82%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
0Saves6
Discipline
13Fouls17
4Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Western Sydney vs Melbourne City

Melbourne City beat Western Sydney 2-0 in A-League on January 1, 2019.

Goals: L. Wales (35'), R. De Laet (37').

Melbourne City controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 17.

The match was played at Spotless Stadium in Sydney.