Western Sydney 2–0 Central Coast Mariners FC

Western Sydney

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Central Coast Mariners FC

J. Sotirio 68'

K. Baccus 45+3'

12/7/2018

A-League · Round 7Spotless Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Western Sydney42%

×Draw24%

Central Coast Mariners FC34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western SydneyExpected goals in this matchCentral Coast Mariners FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.42

Western Sydney

1.60

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.42

Western Sydney creates 13% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 109 away

1.56

creates per match

1.42

1.41

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Western Sydney

1.56

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.42

allows per match

Western Sydney

1.41

Central Coast Mariners FC

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Sydney+0.00on par

Central Coast Mariners FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney ↓

Central Coast Mariners FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Western Sydney or draw

66%

Western Sydney or Central Coast Mariners FC

76%

Draw or Central Coast Mariners FC

58%

Winning margin

Western Sydney wins by 2+

21%

Central Coast Mariners FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Western Sydney 1+ goals

80%

Western Sydney 2+ goals

47%

Western Sydney 3+ goals

22%

Central Coast Mariners FC 1+ goals

76%

Central Coast Mariners FC 2+ goals

41%

Central Coast Mariners FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney (draw refunded)

55%

Central Coast Mariners FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Central Coast Mariners FC away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney attack 1.56 + Central Coast Mariners FC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.60

Central Coast Mariners FC attack 1.42 + Western Sydney defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Western Sydney scores more

42%

level

24%

Central Coast Mariners FC scores more

34%

Western Sydney at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Western Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. Baccus

Western Sydney · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

41'

43'

45'

45+3'

65'

68'

72'

A. Hoole← M. McGlinchey

75'

M. Shabow← J. Melling

76'

Aiden O'Neill

83'

M. Tokich← J. ODoherty

90'

N. Fitzgerald← A. Baumjohann

90+1'

A. Majok← J. Sotirio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WesternCentral

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots8

5Corners7

12Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots8

7On Target3

6Off Target1

3Blocked4

6Inside Box6

10Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

334Total Passes340

226Accurate Passes224

68%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2