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Western Sydney vs Brisbane Roar FC — A-League 2018

Western Sydney
Western Sydney
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Brisbane Roar FC
Brisbane Roar FC
11/10/2018A-LeagueA-League · Round 4Glen Willow Sporting Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Western Sydney46%
×Draw24%
Brisbane Roar FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney
1.64
Brisbane Roar FC
1.28

Western Sydney creates 28% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 105 away

creates per match

Western Sydney
1.56
Brisbane Roar FC
1.15

allows per match

Western Sydney
1.41
Brisbane Roar FC
1.72

finishing

Western Sydney+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney ↓

Brisbane Roar FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Western Sydney or draw
70%
Western Sydney or Brisbane Roar FC
76%
Draw or Brisbane Roar FC
54%

Winning margin

Western Sydney wins by 2+
24%
Brisbane Roar FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Western Sydney 1+ goals
81%
Western Sydney 2+ goals
49%
Western Sydney 3+ goals
23%
Brisbane Roar FC 1+ goals
72%
Brisbane Roar FC 2+ goals
37%
Brisbane Roar FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney (draw refunded)
60%
Brisbane Roar FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Brisbane Roar FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.72 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney attack 1.56 + Brisbane Roar FC defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.64

Brisbane Roar FC attack 1.15 + Western Sydney defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Western Sydney scores more
46%
level
24%
Brisbane Roar FC scores more
30%

Western Sydney at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Western Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Sydney vs Brisbane Roar FC

Western Sydney and Brisbane Roar FC drew 2-2 in A-League on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Glen Willow Sporting Field in Mudgee.