Western Sydney 1–2 Adelaide United: Result & Stats

Western Sydney

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Adelaide United

R. Bonevacia 49'

C. Goodwin 66'

V. Lia 8'

1/18/2019

A-League · Round 14Spotless Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Western Sydney41%

×Draw23%

Adelaide United35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western SydneyExpected goals in this matchAdelaide United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.52

Western Sydney

1.67

Adelaide United

1.52

Western Sydney creates 10% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 109 away

1.56

creates per match

1.62

1.41

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Western Sydney

1.56

Adelaide United

1.62

allows per match

Western Sydney

1.41

Adelaide United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Sydney+0.00on par

Adelaide United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney ↓

Adelaide United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Western Sydney or draw

65%

Western Sydney or Adelaide United

77%

Draw or Adelaide United

59%

Winning margin

Western Sydney wins by 2+

21%

Adelaide United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Western Sydney 1+ goals

81%

Western Sydney 2+ goals

50%

Western Sydney 3+ goals

23%

Adelaide United 1+ goals

78%

Adelaide United 2+ goals

45%

Adelaide United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney (draw refunded)

54%

Adelaide United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 107 matches

Adelaide United away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.78 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney attack 1.56 + Adelaide United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.67

Adelaide United attack 1.62 + Western Sydney defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Western Sydney scores more

41%

level

23%

Adelaide United scores more

35%

Western Sydney at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Western Sydney will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

C. Goodwin

Adelaide United · M

9.1

Match Events

8'

V. Lia↳ C. Goodwin

46'

N. Fitzgerald← R. Mahazi

49'

R. Bonevacia

52'

R. Kitto← G. Blackwood

53'

Vince Lia

54'

Tarek Elrich

58'

N. Konstandopoulos← V. Lia

66'

C. Goodwin↳ N. Mileusnic

72'

Michael Jakobsen

73'

R. Strain← M. Jakobsen

74'

A. Majok← K. Yeboah

80'

Raúl Llorente← B. Kamau

85'

Michael Marrone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WesternAdelaide

Overview

48%Possession52%

15Total Shots17

6Corners4

16Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots17

4On Target7

7Off Target9

4Blocked1

8Inside Box12

7Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

402Total Passes436

318Accurate Passes358

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1