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Western Knights vs Perth — Western Australia NPL 2026

Western Knights
Western Knights
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Perth
Perth
3/16/2024Western Australia NPLWestern Australia NPL · Round 1Nash Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Western Knights37%
×Draw22%
Perth41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Knights
1.77
Perth
1.87

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 88 away

creates per match

Western Knights
1.90
Perth
2.01

allows per match

Western Knights
1.73
Perth
1.65

finishing

Western Knights+0.00on par
Perth+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Knights ↓

Perth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Western Knights or draw
59%
Western Knights or Perth
78%
Draw or Perth
63%

Winning margin

Western Knights wins by 2+
19%
Perth wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Western Knights 1+ goals
83%
Western Knights 2+ goals
53%
Western Knights 3+ goals
26%
Perth 1+ goals
85%
Perth 2+ goals
56%
Perth 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Western Knights (draw refunded)
47%
Perth (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Knights at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Perth away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.65 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Knights attack 1.90 + Perth defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.77

Perth attack 2.01 + Western Knights defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Western Knights scores more
37%
level
22%
Perth scores more
41%

Perth at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Perth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Australia NPL: Western Knights 1–0 Perth

Western Knights beat Perth 1-0 in Western Australia NPL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Nash Field in Perth.