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Regar-TadAZ vs Barki Tajik — Vysshaya Liga 2015

Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
FT
1 – 0
Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
4/25/2015Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 3TALCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Regar-TadAZ43%
×Draw27%
Barki Tajik30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Regar-TadAZ
1.36
Barki Tajik
1.10

Regar-TadAZ creates 24% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.27
Barki Tajik
1.17

allows per match

Regar-TadAZ
1.04
Barki Tajik
1.46

finishing

Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par
Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Regar-TadAZ ↓

Barki Tajik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Regar-TadAZ or draw
70%
Regar-TadAZ or Barki Tajik
73%
Draw or Barki Tajik
57%

Winning margin

Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
20%
Barki Tajik wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
74%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
39%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
16%
Barki Tajik 1+ goals
67%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
30%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
59%
Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Regar-TadAZ at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Barki Tajik away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.27 + Barki Tajik defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.36

Barki Tajik attack 1.17 + Regar-TadAZ defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Regar-TadAZ scores more
43%
level
27%
Barki Tajik scores more
30%

Regar-TadAZ at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Regar-TadAZ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Regar-TadAZ 1–0 Barki Tajik

Regar-TadAZ beat Barki Tajik 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on April 25, 2015.

The match was played at TALCO Arena in Tursunzoda.