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Dollingstown vs Portstewart — Premier Intermediate League 2019

Dollingstown
Dollingstown
CANC
00:00
Portstewart
Portstewart
3/28/2020Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 17Planters Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Dollingstown46%
×Draw23%
Portstewart31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dollingstown
1.77
Portstewart
1.43

Dollingstown creates 24% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

creates per match

Dollingstown
2.05
Portstewart
1.12

allows per match

Dollingstown
1.73
Portstewart
1.50

finishing

Dollingstown+0.00on par
Portstewart+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dollingstown ↓

Portstewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dollingstown or draw
69%
Dollingstown or Portstewart
77%
Draw or Portstewart
54%

Winning margin

Dollingstown wins by 2+
24%
Portstewart wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Dollingstown 1+ goals
83%
Dollingstown 2+ goals
53%
Dollingstown 3+ goals
26%
Portstewart 1+ goals
76%
Portstewart 2+ goals
42%
Portstewart 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Dollingstown (draw refunded)
59%
Portstewart (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dollingstown at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Portstewart away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dollingstown attack 2.05 + Portstewart defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

Portstewart attack 1.12 + Dollingstown defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dollingstown scores more
46%
level
23%
Portstewart scores more
31%

Dollingstown at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dollingstown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Dollingstown host Portstewart

March 28, 2020: Dollingstown take on Portstewart in Premier Intermediate League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Dollingstown host Portstewart at Planters Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.