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West Virginia Alliance vs Tri-Cities — USL League Two 2018

West Virginia Alliance
West Virginia Alliance
PST
21:00
Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
5/27/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 13Shawnee Park Multi Sports Complex (Dunbar, West Virginia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

West Virginia Alliance48%
×Draw22%
Tri-Cities30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Virginia Alliance
2.01
Tri-Cities
1.55

West Virginia Alliance creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 19 away

creates per match

West Virginia Alliance
2.18
Tri-Cities
1.74

allows per match

West Virginia Alliance
1.36
Tri-Cities
1.84

finishing

West Virginia Alliance+0.00on par
Tri-Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Virginia Alliance ↓

Tri-Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

West Virginia Alliance or draw
70%
West Virginia Alliance or Tri-Cities
78%
Draw or Tri-Cities
52%

Winning margin

West Virginia Alliance wins by 2+
28%
Tri-Cities wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

West Virginia Alliance 1+ goals
87%
West Virginia Alliance 2+ goals
59%
West Virginia Alliance 3+ goals
32%
Tri-Cities 1+ goals
79%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
46%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

West Virginia Alliance (draw refunded)
62%
Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Virginia Alliance at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

Tri-Cities away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Virginia Alliance attack 2.18 + Tri-Cities defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.01

Tri-Cities attack 1.74 + West Virginia Alliance defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

West Virginia Alliance scores more
48%
level
22%
Tri-Cities scores more
30%

West Virginia Alliance at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "West Virginia Alliance will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

West Virginia Alliance vs Tri-Cities — Match Preview

West Virginia Alliance face Tri-Cities on May 27, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

West Virginia Alliance host Tri-Cities at Shawnee Park Multi Sports Complex (Dunbar, West Virginia).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.