West Ham 1–2 Manchester United: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Manchester United

S. Benrahma 30'

J. Lingard 89'

Cristiano Ronaldo 35'

9/19/2021

Premier League · Round 5London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

West Ham38%

×Draw25%

Manchester United37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.44

West Ham

1.45

Manchester United

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 27 away

1.38

creates per match

1.36

1.51

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

West Ham

1.38

Manchester United

1.36

allows per match

West Ham

1.51

Manchester United

1.52

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par

Manchester United+0.08on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

63%

West Ham or Manchester United

75%

Draw or Manchester United

62%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

18%

Manchester United wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

77%

West Ham 2+ goals

42%

West Ham 3+ goals

18%

Manchester United 1+ goals

76%

Manchester United 2+ goals

42%

Manchester United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

50%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Manchester United defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.45

Manchester United attack 1.36 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

West Ham scores more

38%

level

25%

Manchester United scores more

37%

West Ham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Ł. Fabiański

West Ham · G

7.9

Match Events

30'

S. Benrahma↳ J. Bowen

35'

Cristiano RonaldoGoal confirmed

35'

Cristiano Ronaldo

68'

A. Yarmolenko← N. Vlašić

73'

J. Sancho← M. Greenwood

73'

J. Lingard← P. Pogba

88'

M. Lanzini← S. Benrahma

88'

N. Matić← Fred

89'

J. Lingard↳ N. Matić

90+3'

Andriy YarmolenkoPenalty awarded

90+4'

M. Noble← J. Bowen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestManchester

Overview

40%Possession60%

13Total Shots17

2Corners11

5Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots17

4On Target10

5Off Target4

4Blocked3

6Inside Box12

7Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

417Total Passes624

348Accurate Passes562

83%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

8Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls8

2Offsides0