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West Ham vs Derby — Championship 2025

West Ham
West Ham
Preview
14:00
Derby
Derby
9/5/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5London Stadium
52%
West Ham
model favours
52%21%27%

Even after scoring first, West Ham win only 44%

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

West Ham52%
×Draw21%
Derby27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
2.12
Derby
1.48

West Ham creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 32 away

creates per match

West Ham
2.67
Derby
1.28

allows per match

West Ham
1.67
Derby
1.56

finishing

West Ham+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
73%
West Ham or Derby
79%
Draw or Derby
48%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
31%
Derby wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
88%
West Ham 2+ goals
62%
West Ham 3+ goals
35%
Derby 1+ goals
77%
Derby 2+ goals
43%
Derby 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
66%
Derby (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Derby away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 2.67 + Derby defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.12

Derby attack 1.28 + West Ham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

West Ham scores more
52%
level
21%
Derby scores more
27%

West Ham at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 23% of West Ham’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • 32% of West Ham’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Ham
WLLLW
Derby
LWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: West Ham host Derby

September 5, 2026: West Ham take on Derby in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

West Ham host Derby at London Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.