West Ham 2–2 Arsenal: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Arsenal

J. Bowen 54'

S. Benrahma 33' (pen)

M. Ødegaard 10'

Gabriel Jesus 7'

4/16/2023

Premier League · Round 31London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

West Ham29%

×Draw26%

Arsenal45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.50

West Ham

1.14

Arsenal

1.50

Arsenal creates 32% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 27 away

1.40

creates per match

1.61

1.39

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

West Ham

1.40

Arsenal

1.61

allows per match

West Ham

1.39

Arsenal

0.88

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

West Ham+0.05on par

Arsenal+0.09on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

55%

West Ham or Arsenal

74%

Draw or Arsenal

71%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

11%

Arsenal wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

68%

West Ham 2+ goals

32%

West Ham 3+ goals

11%

Arsenal 1+ goals

78%

Arsenal 2+ goals

44%

Arsenal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

39%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.61, concedes 0.88 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.40 + Arsenal defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.14

Arsenal attack 1.61 + West Ham defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

West Ham scores more

29%

level

26%

Arsenal scores more

45%

Arsenal at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Ødegaard

Arsenal · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

Gabriel Jesus↳ B. White

10'

M. Ødegaard↳ Gabriel Martinelli

33'

S. BenrahmaPenalty

35'

Thomas Partey

45+4'

Gabriel Jesus

54'

J. Bowen↳ T. Kehrer

67'

Jorginho← Gabriel Jesus

67'

L. Trossard← T. Partey

82'

Aaron Cresswell

85'

R. Nelson← Gabriel Martinelli

85'

Fábio Vieira← K. Tierney

87'

M. Cornet← M. Antonio

87'

F. Downes← Lucas Paquetá

90+1'

Pablo Fornals← S. Benrahma

90'

E. Nketiah← M. Ødegaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestArsenal

Overview

29%Possession71%

16Total Shots11

1.81Expected Goals (xG)2.75

7Corners2

11Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots11

3On Target5

6Off Target4

7Blocked2

13Inside Box10

3Outside Box1

Passing

29%Possession71%

226Total Passes601

156Accurate Passes523

69%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1