West Ham 1–2 Arsenal: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Arsenal

J. Bowen 45'

Gabriel Magalhães 54'

R. Holding 38'

5/1/2022

Premier League · Round 35London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 35+ matches

West Ham28%

×Draw25%

Arsenal47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchArsenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.60

West Ham

1.19

Arsenal

1.60

Arsenal creates 34% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 35 away

1.38

creates per match

1.69

1.51

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

West Ham

1.38

Arsenal

1.69

allows per match

West Ham

1.51

Arsenal

1.00

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par

Arsenal+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Arsenal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

53%

West Ham or Arsenal

75%

Draw or Arsenal

72%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

12%

Arsenal wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

70%

West Ham 2+ goals

33%

West Ham 3+ goals

12%

Arsenal 1+ goals

80%

Arsenal 2+ goals

47%

Arsenal 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

38%

Arsenal (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Arsenal away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Arsenal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Arsenal attack 1.69 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

West Ham scores more

28%

level

25%

Arsenal scores more

47%

Arsenal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Arsenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

R. Holding

Arsenal · D

8.2

Match Events

38'

45'

49'

52'

54'

Gabriel Magalhães↳ Gabriel Martinelli

71'

M. Antonio← M. Lanzini

77'

T. Souček← M. Noble

77'

Cédric Soares← T. Tomiyasu

81'

A. Yarmolenko← S. Benrahma

87'

E. Smith Rowe← B. Saka

90+1'

Aaron Cresswell

90'

Edward Nketiah

90+2'

A. Lokonga← M. Ødegaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestArsenal

Overview

57%Possession43%

8Total Shots13

3Corners7

8Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots13

3On Target7

1Off Target4

4Blocked2

7Inside Box7

1Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

586Total Passes454

503Accurate Passes377

86%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0