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West Brom vs Swansea — Championship 2025

West Brom
West Brom
Preview
15:00
Swansea
Swansea
2/6/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30The Hawthorns
Big match
50%
West Brom
model favours
50%27%23%

Swansea have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

West Brom50%
×Draw27%
Swansea23%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.42
Swansea
0.88

West Brom creates 61% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.41
Swansea
1.01

allows per match

West Brom
0.75
Swansea
1.42

finishing

West Brom-0.17scores less
Swansea-0.21scores less

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
77%
West Brom or Swansea
73%
Draw or Swansea
50%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
24%
Swansea wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
76%
West Brom 2+ goals
41%
West Brom 3+ goals
17%
Swansea 1+ goals
59%
Swansea 2+ goals
22%
Swansea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
68%
Swansea (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 21 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.42 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.41 + Swansea defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.42

Swansea attack 1.01 + West Brom defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

West Brom scores more
50%
level
27%
Swansea scores more
23%

West Brom at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swansea score first in only 13% of matches
  • West Brom score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in 83% of Swansea’s matches
  • Swansea win just 20% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
West Brom
Defensively solid
Swansea
Balanced
52%Possession58%
81%Pass accuracy80%
13.1Shots11.0
1.34xGBiggest gap1.10
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
West BromSwansea

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
West Brom
2
Draws
5
Swansea
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 50%
1–10–13–21–10–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Brom
WLDWW
Swansea
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

West Brom vs Swansea — Match Preview

West Brom face Swansea on February 6, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

West Brom host Swansea at The Hawthorns.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.