West Brom 3–0 Swansea: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swansea

3/13/2019

Championship · Round 37The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

West Brom49%

×Draw26%

Swansea25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.98

West Brom

1.51

Swansea

0.98

West Brom creates 54% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 23 away

1.38

creates per match

1.12

0.84

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

West Brom

1.38

Swansea

1.12

allows per match

West Brom

0.84

Swansea

1.64

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

West Brom-0.06on par

Swansea-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

75%

West Brom or Swansea

74%

Draw or Swansea

51%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

25%

Swansea wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

78%

West Brom 2+ goals

44%

West Brom 3+ goals

19%

Swansea 1+ goals

62%

Swansea 2+ goals

26%

Swansea 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

67%

Swansea (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.64 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.38 + Swansea defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.51

Swansea attack 1.12 + West Brom defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

West Brom scores more

49%

level

26%

Swansea scores more

25%

West Brom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff