West Brom 1–1 Sheffield Wednesday: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sheffield Wednesday

12/29/2018

Championship · Round 25The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

West Brom57%

×Draw25%

Sheffield Wednesday19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchSheffield Wednesday

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.82

West Brom

1.64

Sheffield Wednesday

0.82

West Brom creates 100% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.38

creates per match

0.81

0.84

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

West Brom

1.38

Sheffield Wednesday

0.81

allows per match

West Brom

0.84

Sheffield Wednesday

1.90

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

West Brom-0.06on par

Sheffield Wednesday+0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Sheffield Wednesday →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

81%

West Brom or Sheffield Wednesday

75%

Draw or Sheffield Wednesday

43%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

31%

Sheffield Wednesday wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

81%

West Brom 2+ goals

49%

West Brom 3+ goals

23%

Sheffield Wednesday 1+ goals

56%

Sheffield Wednesday 2+ goals

20%

Sheffield Wednesday 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

75%

Sheffield Wednesday (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Sheffield Wednesday away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.90 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.38 + Sheffield Wednesday defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sheffield Wednesday attack 0.81 + West Brom defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

West Brom scores more

57%

level

25%

Sheffield Wednesday scores more

19%

West Brom at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff