West Brom 1–4 Derby: Result & Stats | Championship

West Brom

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Derby

10/24/2018

Championship · Round 14The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 37+ matches

West Brom47%

×Draw28%

Derby25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.92

West Brom

1.37

Derby

0.92

West Brom creates 49% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

1.38

creates per match

0.99

0.84

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

West Brom

1.38

Derby

0.99

allows per match

West Brom

0.84

Derby

1.36

-0.06on par

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

West Brom-0.06on par

Derby+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

75%

West Brom or Derby

72%

Draw or Derby

53%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

23%

Derby wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

75%

West Brom 2+ goals

40%

West Brom 3+ goals

16%

Derby 1+ goals

60%

Derby 2+ goals

23%

Derby 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

65%

Derby (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.84 · 38 matches

Derby away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.36 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.38 + Derby defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Derby attack 0.99 + West Brom defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

West Brom scores more

47%

level

28%

Derby scores more

25%

West Brom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff