West Armenia 2–4 Shirak: Result & Stats

West Armenia

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Shirak

7/29/2023

Premier League · Round 1Junior Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

West Armenia39%

×Draw24%

Shirak36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West ArmeniaExpected goals in this matchShirak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.48

West Armenia

1.55

Shirak

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 91 away

1.22

creates per match

0.90

2.06

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

West Armenia

1.22

Shirak

0.90

allows per match

West Armenia

2.06

Shirak

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Armenia+0.00on par

Shirak+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Armenia ↓

Shirak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

West Armenia or draw

64%

West Armenia or Shirak

76%

Draw or Shirak

61%

Winning margin

West Armenia wins by 2+

19%

Shirak wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

West Armenia 1+ goals

79%

West Armenia 2+ goals

46%

West Armenia 3+ goals

20%

Shirak 1+ goals

77%

Shirak 2+ goals

43%

Shirak 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

West Armenia (draw refunded)

52%

Shirak (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Armenia at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

Shirak away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.88 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Armenia attack 1.22 + Shirak defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Shirak attack 0.90 + West Armenia defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

West Armenia scores more

39%

level

24%

Shirak scores more

36%

West Armenia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "West Armenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff